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The S&P 500 is at risk of plunging 44% to around a four-year low, Paul Dietrich said. The top strategist explained that selling stocks well before they crash can yield outsized returns. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe stock market may be headed for a 44% crash — and getting out early could pay off, Paul Dietrich said. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Paul Dietrich, Dietrich, , Riley Wealth Organizations: Service, Business
The bond market's famous recession gauge has been flashing for 18 months. A downturn could be delayed for months after the yield curve first inverts, Paul Dietrich said. Dietrich pointed to the inverted Treasury yield curve, a highly accurate recession gauge that flashes when the yield on the 2-year US Treasury surpasses the 10-year Treasury. In the past, recessions have taken up to 28 months to officially start after being signaled by the yield curve and leading economic indicators, he noted. Dietrich is among the more bearish forecasters on Wall Street, having warned investors of an impending recession for months.
Persons: Paul Dietrich, , Riley Wealth's, Dietrich, Stocks Organizations: Service, Treasury
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewWarren Buffett's favorite market gauge has surged to a two-year high of 184%, signaling stocks are overvalued and could suffer a devastating crash. Investors use it to compare the overall value of the stock market to the size of the national economy. It also relies on GDP, which excludes overseas income, whereas US stocks price in the value of companies' domestic and international operations. AdvertisementYet the metric's return to the lofty levels that preceded past market disasters is a clear red flag for some experts.
Persons: , Warren, Buffett, yardstick, Buffett's yardstick, John Hussman, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth Organizations: Service, Business, Wilshire Indexes, Wilshire, Nvidia, Microsoft, Federal, Nasdaq, Hussman Investment Trust Locations: Wilshire, Berkshire
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
Here's a roundup of recent recession warnings from six experts:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEOAdvertisementThere's a long history of investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week. AdvertisementSteve Hanke, Johns Hopkins professorThe US economy is headed for a recession if history is any indication, Hanke told Business Insider this week. AdvertisementPaul Dietrich, B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist"We're still on the path to recession," Dietrich told Business Insider in a recent interview. AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO"I think recession is closer than most people think," Gundlach said in a recent YouTube video.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, There's, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, We're, Dietrich, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, JPMorgan, CNBC, UBS, DoubleLine Locations: American, Russia, Ukraine, Israel
Read previewSteep rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be coming later this year thanks to weakening in the job market, which likely isn't as robust as some of the latest data has made it out to be, according to Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson. Advertisement"We need a catalyst, we need some data that shows these recent, strong data were just a blip. But much of that strength may be seasonal and no longer reflected in upcoming job reports, Nelson said. Other market commentators have warned that hiring activity could weaken in 2024 as tighter financial conditions take a toll on businesses. Though the jobless rate is low, continuing unemployment claims are hovering around 1.9 million, according to Fed data.
Persons: , Wells, Erik Nelson, Nelson, Paul Dietrich Organizations: Service, Federal, Bloomberg, Business, Fed, New York Fed, Yale School of Management
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at why side hustles are all the rage these days . Call it “overemployed light,” but working side jobs for some extra income is en vogue, especially for young people. For as much energy as they put into eliciting change, they also view their job as… just a job.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Severe earnings recession' in U.S. banking as long as there's an inverted yield curve: StrategistPaul Dietrich of B. Riley Wealth Management says that will keep the banking sector down for "quite a long time."
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